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XMR · 10w

Possible CryptoNight Mining Algo Variant #2 Discussion

True that's the other side. So ASIC manufacturer's will also have an additional 2 weeks. Wondering if there's a way to find out how long it took Bitmain & Baikal for their old CNv0 ASICs from planning to end product.

Edit: I did some calculations with my own imginatory assumptions. 10'000 ASICs like their old X3 miner would result in 220 MH/s. Or about 45% of our current network. 10'000 ASICs is not a lot for a multi billion dollar company like Bitmain. If we assume 1 ASIC costs $500 in production (including R&D) (they sold for low $k and S9 used to cost several $k and look at their prices now, I think they're still selling them for a profit, they only accomodate their prices to crypto income, not actual production cost). So if the $500 assumption is true, then that's a $5M investment, which is nothing for Bitmain. That $5M investment would yield 45% of XMR (daily emission is 3024 XMR) therefore 1360,8 XMR go to Bitmain, or $163'296 in daily proceeds. They would consume 4.65MW of power, assuming a price of 3c per kW/h would mean daily costs of $3'348 and a net profit of $159'948. That would mean a break-even time of 31.26 days. With the new algo it's 125 days if they use external memory, 500.16 days if on-chip memory (or they'll just cram more on there if they have cheap access to it, as I also don't know what type of memory they use).

Personally I think it would make sense to add an official "surprise POW tweak fork" once or twice a year to add further uncertainty to their economic models. Date would be determined by a pre-defnied block height block hash + time needed from devs to make a small tweak.

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