224,003 views|Nov 22, 2019,2:07 pmBitcoin Isnât Down Because of China, Itâs Down Because You Donât Need It Oliver RenickContributorOpinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
I am the Lead Anchor at TD Ameritrade Network.center of the National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Area in southwest Chinaâs Guizhou Province, May 22, 2019. (Photo by Ou Dongqu/Xinhua via Getty) (Xinhua/Ou Dongqu via Getty Images) Xinhua News Agency/Getty Images
Crypto markets are not reeling this week because China is âcracking down on Blockchain.â Tokens have been getting slammed since the summer because most of them are unnecessary, and because the need for coins that may offer some utility is not as imminent as buyers thought it would be. This is most obvious with King Crypto, bitcoin, whose purported use-case as a store of value is not looking very compelling.
The risk-reward in bitcoin has always been an extreme one, which is why its biggest proponents/salespeople assigned astronomic price targets to it. Widespread adoption is an extremely low-probability event with an enormous payoff if the stars align. And letâs be clear: the things that need to happen for the world to turn to bitcoin â complete central bank impotence, widespread currency debasement, falling equity markets and the abandonment of traditional gold â means betting on bitcoin is essentially betting against the house. Hence the âshort bankers, long bitcoinâ meme. To say bitcoin will offer a 100x return yet also say itâs a highly probabilistic event is inherently contradictory and hugely dishonest.
The market is now realizing this. As the global economic slowdown of the last nine months shows signs of stabilization and the Federal Reserve sees no need for more interest-rate cuts, the case for bitcoin is taking body blows. None of the stories about adoption are turning out, big tech giants from Facebo...