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ETH · 53w

'Maximum Pain': Joe Lubin, Jimmy Song Strike $500K Crypto Bet on Ethereum's Future - CoinDesk

The terms of a much-hyped bet have finally been settled, and, at current prices, more than $500,000 in crypto is on the line.

“It’s a maximum pain kind of bet,” Jimmy Song said during a session of CoinDesk Live at Consensus 2019. “Skin in the game.”

The new details stem from an onstage agreement from Consensus 2018, where Lubin told Song that he would bet “any amount of bitcoin” that ethereum’s decentralized apps would have a non-trivial number of users in five years.

Song had accused Lubin of “weaseling” out of the bet in recent weeks, including calling Lubin out on Twitter.

But the meeting of the two crypto thought leaders on Tuesday did not disappoint, especially in terms of how much crypto was wagered.

Deal terms

If ethereum is doing great four years from now, Song will pay Lubin (or his beneficiary) 810.8 ETH. If the dapp economy is sputtering at that point, Lubin will send Song 69.74 BTC.

For Lubin to win, Ethereum needs to have five unique dapps achieving 10,000 or more daily active users and 100,000 monthly active users for any six calendar months in any 12-calendar-month period up to and including May 23, 2023.

To be clear, this is not a small bet for either side, and both acknowledge that whichever side wins, it will hurt badly. It’s also possible the loser will be giving up considerably more money in 2023 than they would today.

When the bet was first made, on May 14, 2018, BTC was trading at $8,577. So, Lubin had effectively bet $598,190 based on prices at the time. That’s $564,307 at today’s prices.

The difference in ETH was much more stark, however. At the time of the bet last year, ETH was trading at $722.86. So, Song effectively bet $586,095 at prices at the time – but only $168,030 at today’s prices.

If he wins, Song was very clear that the BTC will go straight to him. “I want it to hurt for you,” Song told Lubin. “I don’t want you to feel like you are donating to...

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