Ethereum
$166.12 1.66%
ETH · 3w

ETH almost fully retraced to 2019 low, $83 a key support going forward

Volatility

The chart below shows the 30-day volatility of returns for BTC and ETH.

Over the past week, volatility has increased significantly for both BTC and ETH.

Source: CoinMetrics CME Futures

The CME’s bitcoin futures contract gapped down following the large swing to the downside on March 12th. The chart below shows the gap between $9,060 and $8,280.

Source: TradingView

The chart below shows the prices of different futures contracts for bitcoin on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

Source: TradingView Technical Outlook: BTC-USD

Bitcoin has established fresh lows for 2020, swiftly moving from $8,000 to the $4,000’s on March 12th. In the process, BTC-USD has broken below key Fibonacci supports at $8,501.14, $7,231.73 and $5,661.10.

The only Fibonacci support left is the 100% retracement level at $3,122.28 — the 2019 low. However, if the price manages to close above $5,661.10 by the end of March, this should open up an attempt at $7,231.73.

Last week saw BTC-USD move below the 200-week moving average.

The price of bitcoin has only tested the 200-week moving average four times previously and has never moved below it for too long. If the price fails to move back above the moving average (currently at $5,534.09), then it could point to further weakness ahead.

The daily chart below shows the weekly Fibonacci support/resistance levels and the MACD oscillator. The pivot point lies at $5,789 while the firt weekly support is seen just above $4,000.

The MACD is negative suggesting downward momentum will continue to dominate. A cross-over could indicate the start of a new uptrend.

Technical Outlook: ETH-USD

The monthly chart shows the long-term outlook for ether, with prices almost hitting $83.00. This level should act as strong support, but a monthly close below $83.00 would hint at further weakness.

On the other hand, a monthly close above $83.00 should open up the next Fibonacci leve...

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