Bitcoin is sure to crash and it is as sure to moon, that is how bitcoin moves. Right now people can be forgiven for being scared bitcoin is going to crash more so than usual. I’ve been a bear since bitcoin broke above $40,000, or more accurately, risk off in big crypto since then. I’ve been playing in DeFi and in tokens at a level leveraging the insane volatility of lesser cryptos rather than hold “all in positions” in bitcoin. Playing smaller tokens with big beta at smaller position size, keeps the downside at a much lower level than playing bitcoin or for that matter Ethereum in huge size, while retaining the nominal upside.
That has worked out well and I have missed out on a lot of white-knuckle action and picked up a few nice moves without risking my shirt on the outcome. As a bear it’s hard to play the long game but even as a bear I’m not insane enough to short bitcoin or Ethereum and risk “gamblers ruin.”
My current favorite token position is matic token on the Polygon chain. If bitcoin is not going to drop off its perch, then matic will do extremely well with a 50%-100% upside. For bitcoin to do that well would be titanic and tokens like matic would likely go up well beyond 100% in such a move. Conversely, if BTC was to crash under $20,000, I don’t mind wearing matic tokens for the long term. The mid-term future of bitcoin is simply not predictable at this point, so the way to trade crypto is to size positions conservatively and manage risk.
Token prices have also been on the back foot in the last month, many falling heavily from highs, yet Ethereum has been firm by comparison. This fall back has meant certain tokens are looking tempting for me but I’m not in a hurry. Compound, after its accidental largesse, is looking inviting and so is sushiswap. Both of course have the U.S. regulatory sword of Damocles hanging over their head, but you have to factor that in for every project out ther...