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Chances of EIP-1559 being implemented by July 31, 2021 on Ethereum

42% yes! We know this (at this point in time) because of [prediction markets]( How cool is that? And all the serious prediction markets run on Ethereum. > Prediction markets (also known as predictive markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures, event derivatives, or virtual markets) are exchange-traded markets created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events. The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is. A prediction market contract trades between 0 and 100%. It is a binary option that will expire at the price of 0 or 100%. > Research has suggested that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.
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