Chances of EIP-1559 being implemented by July 31, 2021 on Ethereum
42% yes! We know this (at this point in time) because of [prediction markets](https://p%6flymarket.com/market/will-eip-1559-be-implemented-by-july-31-2021). How cool is that? And all the serious prediction markets run on Ethereum.
> Prediction markets (also known as predictive markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures, event derivatives, or virtual markets) are exchange-traded markets created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events. The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is. A prediction market contract trades between 0 and 100%. It is a binary option that will expire at the price of 0 or 100%.
> Research has suggested that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.