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ADA · 3w

Some plots of per epoch ADA rewards

For anyone interested, this is a plot of the mean per epoch rewards vs. the standard deviation of the per epoch rewards (per 1000 ADA staked) for about 220 or so pools. The pools selected come from using Adapool's advanced filtering to focus on pools that have at least 100000 pledge and at least 6 million staked. For each of those pools, I scraped their rewards history (their total delegator rewards, active stake, and the dates of the rewards). Then I filtered the data to focus on pools that have had rewards for at least the last ten epochs straight. Then I asked the questions, "What if I put 1000 ADA into this pool? Roughly what would I have made for each of the the last ten epochs?" After answering those questions, I asked, "What would be the mean and standard deviation of those rewards for the last ten epochs?" There's no way to answer that for sure (since putting in 1000 ADA to one pool or another influences the selection process), but I estimated this by assuming your ADA had no influence on the selection process and just finding (1000/(active stake + 1000))\*(total delegator rewards) for each epoch for each pool. That's an estimate of how much you would have earned in that pool after splitting the delegator rewards with everyone else. Then for each pool, I took the average of their per epoch rewards and also found the standard deviation of those per epoch rewards. Below is a scatterplot of that. https://preview.redd.it/y0s3zr7dv3u61.png?width=716&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d5a5781c29db73d421871723fb3b7441b6de452 Below is a histogram of the mean rewards. https://preview.redd.it/i24j85myu3u61.png?width=718&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f7701ea8ffbb6bc576aff3764c8d2ef2fd7b8de If you wanted more robust measures (median and median absolute deviation), then you can take a look at those measures as well. Here are the same plots but for those more robust statistics (so that outlier rewards (very extreme good/bad luck) are less influential on the final measure). https://...
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