What Could Bitcoin Mining Look Like at 1 Zettahash? [River Financial Report - December 2022]
Report Link: https://river.com/learn/files/river-bitcoin-mining-zettahash-report.pdf
Some interesting charts:
The rapid increase in hashrate over the past year makes a zettahash seem relatively close. And yet, it could still take a decade or two before the Bitcoin network gets to this point.
A short term boost in Bitcoin's security budget through major price increases could quickly grow the hashrate by the required 300% to reach a zettahash. If such rapid growth does not happen before 2028 when Bitcoin's block rewards are set to halve again after the 2024 halving, then in the medium term it is likely that only significant Bitcoin adoption can help finance a sustained hashrate of one zettahash.
In the long term if Bitcoin survives, it is inevitable that it will reach a zettahash in hashrate through efficiency improvements and abundant cheap energy.
Due to the minimum costs of renewable energy dropping year after year, it is at most a matter of decades before the Bitcoin network is almost entirely sustainably powered. This transition will happen long before significant nation states will be mostly powered by renewable energy.
Humanity is only beginning to scratch the surface of using Bitcoin mining as a tool to help combat, rather than to reportedly cause, climate change. To accomplish this change at significant scale, Bitcoin's hashrate must not only grow to a zettahash, but far beyond it. Regardless of your climate change policy preferences, Bitcoin mining is going to become a bigger part of this conversation in a constructive way. Education is critical to help people understand how mining can play a role, so that this industry can continue to grow over the next decades with less friction.