Unpopular Opinion: BTC will not hit 100K till at least 2029-2030


So I see all over the place that this next cycle after the 2024 halving that BTC will def. Hit 100k and higher. Prepare for 2025 they say, it will moon! My opinion is that BTC will not hit 100k for a while. Here's why.

  1. When everybody is shilling higher prices and everyone expects something to go to their target, usually the opposite happens

  2. It is much easier to go from 1 million to 5 million or 1 billion to 5 billion in market cap then it is to go from 500 billion to 1 trillion. What ppl don't realize is that you need to look at market cap not price. A doubling of a price at higher prices means it takes much more money to get it there then at lower prices.

  3. The current economic situation. Since BTC was created we have known only loose monetary policy and a booming economy. Now we are seeing tightening and recession if not depression on the horizon. This current environment is not good for assets like Bitcoin.

  4. People don't have the know how to use or store Bitcoin. It's a challenge explaining it to the older folks who have the money and they would rather put that money into stocks, real estate, gold and bonds. The learning curve is too broad.

  5. People are actually utilizing Bitcoin for payments. Since the supply is circulating the demand is about the same, this keeps a cap on the price

For all these reasons and some more I don't believe BTC will hit the 100k mark any time soon. What I see happening this next cycle is BTC going to 60-70k and forming a triple top then trading for 5+ years between 10 and 50k. I'm sorry for not giving on the dot and specific numbers but I'm just no that smart. People need to forget about BTC and only then will it pump back up. This is not to say to stop stacking on the contrary keep stacking bit I don't believe that we will moon as the shill boys in so many places predict we will.

Finally, as Bitcoin hodlers we shouldn't even really care what the price is in Fiat. As the famous meme with Giancarlo Esposito goes "you buy Bitcoin to have more dollars, but I buy Bitcoin to have less dollars, we are not the same.


P.S. Just to put my money where my mouth is. If I am wrong I will donate 100$ to the most upvoted charity.