Bitcoin
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BTC · 17w

Turkish Lira crashes 30% in one day, Erdogan to unleash Plan "B".

Following emergency bank meetings and numerous pleas by Erdogan for Turks not to "pull FX out of their banks," blaming the country's current economic crisis on America, the Lira has opened massively weaker - crashing below 7.00 per dollar for the first time ever...

That is the second day in a row that the lira has crashed over 75 handles!!!

As The FT reports, Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused other countries on Sunday of mounting an “operation” to bring down the Turkish economy...

“What is the cause of this storm?” he asked a gathering of ruling party officials in the Black Sea city of Trabzon. “There is no economic reason . . . It’s an operation against Turkey.”

But gave no indication he would meet investors’ demands for an emergency plan to prop up the plunging lira.

"I’m calling out to industrialists, do not attack banks to buy FX," said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a speech in Trabzon. "It is industrialists’ duty too to keep this nation on its feet. Otherwise we will set into motion our plan B and C," he added.

Sounds very scary - Plan B and C... we can guess that the 'B' stands for 'Block' capital outflows and 'C' stands for confiscation of gold and dollars.

Reuters reports a low level of 7.22 - all of which implies the Turkish banking system is done.

As Goldman Sachs warned,  further lira depreciation to 7.1 would erode all of Turkey's banks' excess capital.

Within the current backdrop, we view banks as being vulnerable to Turkish Lira depreciation given that it impacts:

(1) capital levels due to a meaningful portion of FC assets, which increase RWAs in local currency terms on Turkish Lira depreciation, (2) asset quality and cost of risk, as Turkish Lira volatility can put stress on borrowers’ ability to repay as well as underlying collateral values. Moreover, Lira depreciation leads to higher provisioning requirements for FC NPLs, though banks are hedging this risk and can offset the i...
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