Time for an grown up conversation
So I’ve noticed a strong trend developing of people asking quite legitimate questions of BTCs future and that of wider crypto, only to be met back with half baked platitudes, that those of us in the community have heard many times before. Despite this, there are some serious questions that the BTC community need to consider. I’ve detailed below a series of real life (not technical) issues that face BTC. If anyone can respond to them with genuine logical responses then please do so. If you feel compelled to reply with something like, ‘this is fud’ or ‘your comment is a buy signal’ or ‘we have seen this all before’ then just pop your self back in the poorly informed box from which you came.
This time ‘is’ different. BTC has never witnessed a macro economic environment like this before. This is a fact. BTC performed as a ‘risk on asset’ only and is strongly correlated with the likes of the NSDQ. In an environment that may see major indexes like the S&P, Dow, NSDQ fail to return ATH across a 10/15yr period, what would this mean for BTC?
The ‘institutions’ are not coming. BTC took 10yrs to attract a comparatively slight level of institutional interest. Following significant issues around ESG compliance, repeated frauds and scams ala Tera and FTX etc as well as a lack of regulation, it is likely that institutions will struggle to regain any foothold within the space ever again.
‘We have seen this all before, Mt Gox etc’ No we haven’t. Never before has so much been lost by so many, in an environment that was already being lined up as a target by regulators. The core argument here being that the actions of a few ‘crypto’ bros have likely damaged the space so irrevocably that the coming regulation is likely to be punitive in the extreme. For retail it is highly likely that regulators will seek to control all on and off ramps making it near impossible to own or realise any gains. For institutions it is likely that the regulation will be designed to limit / prevent adoption. There will be no ETF, ever.
Energy usage is an issue regardless of the facts of environmental impact. The energy price is not stabilising and is highly unlikely to do so under the current geopolitical conditions. This is now leading to a declining hash rate. This combined with little price action will lead to stagnation.
What’s the narrative? As much as the maxis believe in the BTC gospel of freedoms and pharmaceutical grade money (I count my self within this) the only thing that has brought new people to the space is price speculation. With the above being true and the potential for little positive price action across a significant timeframe, what is the narrative that would bring new people to this space?