The Path to $476k Bitcoin in 5 to 10 Years - Calculation Included
With all the hype and Bitcoin price projections in the market right now, much of it lacks good data references and/or realistic assumptions; to that end, below is my take on such a calculation. I ran an earlier calculation in 2014 with a 1 to 2% assumption of global money supply and came up with $150k. Since conservative mainstream sources such as JPMorgan are indicating the $150k target, the longer term future seems to need an update.
**Bitcoin to $476k in 5 to 10 Years**
* Bitcoin Supply: 21MM (high possible total) & 18.5MM (current & low)
* Bitcoin Current Price: ˜$37k
* Global Money Supply\* = ˜$200 Trillion
* data based on this chart [https://www.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization-2020/](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization-2020/)
* Gold Gold Market: ˜$10.9 Trillion or ˜5% of Global Money Supply
* Conversion to Bitcoin from 5% of the Global Money Supply (roughly equivalent size to the Gold Market)
* Likely only 10 to 30% move from Gold and the rest from other sources
* 5 to 10 year adoption timeline
* Bitcoin supply will be less than 21MM. The actual value will adjust slightly higher based on supply.
* $200T \* 5% = $10T from Global Money Supply (Bitcoin Market)
* $10T / 21MM Bitcoin Supply = $476k for 1 Bitcoin
* Rises to $540k per coin if closer to18.5MM Bitcoin Supply
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