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BTC · 2w

The Fed's Losing Battle with Technological Deflation

**PART 1/4 - FREE MARKET?** First off, let's set the scene. The stock market is telling you nothing about the real economy anymore. Economic fundamentals have never mattered as little for the stock market as has been the case during this 11-year bull market. The correlation between gross-domestic-product growth and the direction of the S&P 500 Index has only been 7% in this cycle - historically it has been 30% to 70%. Why? Well, it is the Central Banks, led by the Fed, who printed their way out of the Recession in '08. In doing so, they have papered over the cracks, and we have seen the longest economic expansion in US history. However, this is not a particularly meritocratic process: money creation itself increases inequality via the [Cantillon Effect](, as money printing leads to asset price inflation, which disproportionately benefits the rich and hurts the poor. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker told the New York Times in 2018: *“The central issue is we’re developing into a plutocracy. We’ve got an enormous number of enormously rich people that have convinced themselves that they’re rich because they’re smart and constructive."* The reality of course is that this is largely not the case - it is because the game is rigged in their favour. Now, it is important to emphasise the fact that the path we have taken has resulted in the highest living standards we have seen in human history. *However*, the issue, particularly since the US completely abandoned the gold standard in 1971, is that debt has exploded to obscene levels. We are not operating in a free market if it takes $185 trillion of debt over the last 20 years to create 'growth'. In fact, the global debt to GDP ratio hit an all-time high of 322% in the third quarter of 2019. Inflation means that your dollar loses value and thus your purchasing power goes down. Deflation means that the value of your dollar goes up and your purchasing power...
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