Bitcoin
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BTC · 4w

Prediction model from 2015. Bitcoin prices in 2027: $1M, 2034: $10M. 2045: $100M

There is an old prediction model/figure from 2015, you can find it at [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqs-HP8rb5I](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqs-HP8rb5I) Also in 2014 at [https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=831547.msg9293359#msg9293359](https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=831547.msg9293359#msg9293359) The numbers are of course very rough estimates. Still, quite impressive predictions. Today's estimated number is about $0.1M, for the sake of simplicity the following computations assume $0.1M in January 2022. One can observe that the price makes 10x after a period of time, the length of this period increases by a factor of 1.41x in every new "cycle" (it does not necessarily correspond to a cycle). According to this model, BTC is expected to be in order of $1M in 2026-2027. Then $10M in 2034 and $100M in 2045. Because of the 1.41x multiplier, it will take about 5+ years from today's estimated $0.1M to $1M and then again about 7 years to $10M. In total, it will take about 12-13 years from now to go from $0.1M to $10M. However, due to the 1.41 multiplier, it will take about 25 years to make the next 100x. Eventually, the growth rate will stagnate. If we compute it for 2150, it will be about 6-7% per year. Today's total world wealth is about $431 trillion or about $23M per bitcoin. Assuming the world wealth will grow at 7% (the old rate for money printing). According to the model above, bitcoin market cap would achieve the world wealth value in 2045. Instead, if the money printing will accelerate to say 10% per year, then the parity will be achieved in about 2070. One should remember that that to achieve say $100 trillion market cap, bitcoin does not need $100 trillions invested in it. The actual number is of course unknown, but it might be in order of a few percent of the target market cap. Even $10M in 2034 might seem astronomical. However, if the current trend will continue then $10M of 2034 will correspond to about $4M of today (given 7% "true"...
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