A year before the 2020 presidential election I thought whoever the Democratic nominee was would beat Donald Trump. I would have bet on it if they had not selected one of the worst possible candidates in Joe Biden.
I held off betting because I thought Biden might make a fatal error and that anti-Biden arguments might gain traction.
Also things were too chaotic for me to feel confident betting. Trump’s economy was booming then Trump mishandled coronavirus and then there was widespread rioting! Months out there was no guessing what the situation on election day might be.Pulling the trigger on election day Anti-Trump enthusiasm and no Biden disasters
By election morning Biden had avoided stepping on major landmines and had stayed strong in the polls.
On the other hand it still seemed like there was an enthusiasm gap in Trump’s favor. However as election day went on I saw that in person turnout, which would favor Trump, was modest compared to early/mail voting numbers which would favor Biden. This indicated that early voting anti-Trumpers were at least as numerous and enthusiastic as election day voting Trump supporters.
By 7PM eastern time I also saw voting itself had gone smoothly with no election day controversies. When bettors I respect suggested this was another rare Mayweather vs McGregor scenario I was ready to pull the trigger and make a big bet.This really is one of those once-in-a-blue-moon betting events, like Mayweather/McGregor. Not as certain, obviously, but the betting volume is so high and there is so much square and price-insensitive money coming in on Trump that the market price is not at all efficient.— Rufus (@RufusPeabody) November 3, 2020 Trump to win Florida changes the odds
Biden’s odds were around 1.4, then when the first newsworthy results broke they shot up to 1.6. Returns showed Trump was on track to win Florida. However I could see th...