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BTC · 19w

History Rhymes; It Rarely Repeats — Beware of the Extrapolations…

History Rhymes; It Rarely Repeats — Beware of the Extrapolations…

News Flash: Social media is a noisy place.

Temperatures are high, opinions are strong and thousands of voices are shouting at the top of their lungs to be heard.

Add Bitcoin to this and you get the dual dynamite of hand-wavy confidence and statistical creativity prescribed in strong doses according to the general state of the market.

Sidebar: For more on the hand-wavy confidence phenomenon…our CSO Meltem Demirors recently talked with Jill Carlson and Laura Shin about this very thing — definitely worth a listen (link).

When the market is down the bears crawl out of their dens triumphantly roaring how they were right all along: ‘Bitcoin is a Ponzi,’ everyone’s a bunch of idiots and it’s going to zero by year end.

Then when the market swings, bulls come out in force, charging across the field, calling for moon, lambos and bitcoin to infinity. Their ideas are often “backed” by various instances of untested hypotheses and pseudo-science.

We’re not the only ones to have noticed the slew of somewhat low-effort graphs and curves permeating the space with dubious theoretical backing.

…you can almost make a fit for anything…

At CoinShares we focus on the facts, the hard numbers and the long term middle way. Before we go any further, let us be very clear:

In our view — bitcoin is not dying; but it is certainly not going to infinity (unless, of course, you believe the dollar will hyperinflate into infinity (different post/conversation).

To illustrate our point, we feel obliged to point out some recent Medium shenanigans by Pantera Capital.

Now I know Dan Morehead; he and his crew are a level-headed gang and we like and respect them, a lot. They too are pioneers in this space and that should not be forgotten.

We suspect they may be intentionally trying to spark some controversy here by the slight use of hyperbole and feeding into some pri...

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