Great China Hashrate Migration: we might see a maximum difficulty drop of -25%. Here's what it means for miners.
This year’s great China Hashrate Migration has turned into a Hashrate Exodus. Much has been said about long-term implications for decentralization and the mining industry as a whole. Let's zoom in on the next difficulty epoch: an **unprecedented period of mining profitability**.
At the moment, difficulty is expected to adjust down 20% in 1 week. Based on more recent block times, we may even see a **maximum downward adjustment of 25%**.
[Explanation of why difficulty adjustments are capped, from Mastering Bitcoin.](https://preview.redd.it/29lq4dq4if771.png?width=753&format=png&auto=webp&s=ff2506a5a2e0e4d067b61fe90b2b5161688573ff)
This means that **mining profitability will increase by 20-25% in BTC terms** — **the largest increase in Bitcoin’s history**. While hundreds of thousands of ASICs sit idle in trucks, cargo ships, planes, and warehouses, those that remain online become more valuable.
Let’s check some profitability stats, starting with the machine that redefined ASIC longevity: the **Antminer S9.** Using Braiins OS+ firmware with overclocking settings to maximize revenue, we see an increase of 2700 sats/day & nearly $1/day profit with 3¢/kWh electricity.
How about the latest-gen? Here’s a look at the **Antminer S19 Pro**. Pre-adjustment, it’s already mining nearly 70k sats/day. After a conservative -20% adjustment, revenue increases to 86.7k sats/day and profit jumps by almost $6/day with 6¢/kWh electricity.
Even with stock firmware, the **Whatsmi...