Options traders are expressing bullishness and betting that the bitcoin price will rise above $80,000 as early as the end of April. However, analysis data suggest that this scenario is quite unlikely.
With events on the horizon, such as the highly anticipated Coinbase IPO next month, options traders seem to be betting that the Bitcoin price will continue its upward rally and reach new all-time highs in the coming weeks.
A Bitcoin price in the range of $80,000 is where the most money is being bet on On March 24, the founders of cryptoanalysis firm Glassnode tweeted data suggesting that options traders on peer-to-peer crypto derivatives exchange Deribit are stocking up on contracts with a strike price of $80,000, which expire as early as April 30. Contracts with this price target have already been bought with a face value of 4,000 BTC, representing over 50% more sales than any other strike price.
However, if the bitcoin price is below $80,000 at the end of April, contrary to options traders' expectations, the contracts will expire and be worthless. Thus, options traders must be convinced that the bitcoin price is far from reaching the market peak to buy such a contract.Skew gives BTC only a 6.19% probability of success
According to data aggregator Skew, probability estimates based on market data for the April 30 contract suggest that options traders may be a bit too optimistic. The analytics platform gives it a probability of just 6.19%. Conversely, this means a 93.81% probability that the bitcoin price will be below $80,000 when the options traders’ positions mature.
At that, price expectations of $80,000 or more are not even the tip of the iceberg. Significant volume has also accumulated around contracts with a strike price of $120,000. This means that some traders believe the bitcoin price will more than double in the next five...