Before the haterade

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Before the haterade

Before the haterade: bitcoin continues to take more and more of my net worth. And not because the price is up-I continue to move assets such as real estate equity and extra income into it. I have been a vocal supporter. This post is about a real discussion.

  1. I have heard a very constant remark as a rebuttal of bitcoin's volatile price swing: "Bitcoin is the best performing asset of all time." True. However, let’s compare it to housing.

Let’s say you had 200k in 2017.

Person a buys bitcoin let’s say at 10k. InVestment is now worth 400 K.

Person b Buys a $1 million house in Los Angeles -2017.  They put down that 200k as down payment. The day that house is worth 1.8 to 2,000,000. Even if we go on the low side/1.8, the 200 K is now worth a million.

Keep in mind this assumes that they bought the bitcoin at 10K.

What I’m saying is that I think that saying “bitcoin is the best investment of all time" needs some asterisks.

  1. While I respect “fix the money, fix the world” My interaction with bitcoin Maximalists is becoming more unsettling. Am I the only one? Do we live in a world where the goal is to only have 1 thing of value? And if we only have one thing of value, who really benefits from that? Also, I saw many bitcoin promoters who were called out in the Celsius blowup.

  2. From an investment point of view, I no longer believe that the halvings are truly correlated with price. I think there are a lot more data points-Dxy, fed balance sheet, inflation, etc.

  3. Do you believe corporate adoption coming? Would really like some opinions on this. Besides Saylor, I don’t really see it.

  4. Is there a year or price you would call it quits? For me the answer is no because I believe the federal government simply cannot run with rates going higher. The interest expense is too high. The government debt must have negative real rates. So for me it’s a bet that I’ll stick to. But I’m curious how others feel.